With President Obama asking for between $8 and $15 billion for High Speed Rail and every civic booster group in the land lobbying for a high speed rail line to its community the question I ask in the headline is a valid one.
Would Americans ride High Speed Rail? The problem is that there is no simple answer to this question. This means that our politicians and journalists who don’t like complex questions won’t ask the question because there is no easy answer that can make a quick sound bit. I might also add that complex questions require thought and study two behaviors that our politicians and journalists generally refuse to engage in.
It is impossible to determine whether Americans would ride High Speed Rail because there is no High Speed Rail system in the United States. You can’t tell how many people would use something that doesn’t exist.
Yes, the web sites, press releases and information hand outs of High Speed Rail Promoters and High Speed Rail Detractors are full of statistics and rider ship projections. Unfortunately without operating High Speed Rail lines in the USA those projections are nothing but educated guesses at best. Any data used is either guesswork based on rider ship of foreign rail systems or surveys of Americans. I might also add that the results of these “projections” seem to reach the conclusions that those paying for them want. Rail Boosters come up with high rider ship projections, while Rail Bashers predict empty trains.
Even if the Rail Backers and detractors were honest (sadly none of the major players on either side seems to have much use for the truth) their methodology is flawed and unscientific. Obviously conditions in foreign countries are different from those in the US so projections based on existing high speed rail are questionable at best. Surveying people about something they haven’t actually experienced first hand is a pointless activity. Since most Americans have never seen or ridden a High Speed Train their responses to a survey about High Speed Rail wouldn’t have any bearing on reality.
So how do we answer the question Will Americans Ride High Speed Rail? Simple build a High Speed Rail Line and see if Americans will ride it? Since tens of millions of Americans ride the quasi high speed rail Amtrak operates in the Northeast Corridor, the nation’s growing network of commuter rail lines, subways and light rail everyday the answer would appear to be yes. Americans will certainly ride trains if they’re fast, convenient, affordable, reliable, comfortable, and go to places Americans want to go to. Millions of Americans also take trains overseas when they’re traveling.
Remember everyday millions of Americans pay millions of dollars for the wonderful experience of spending hours sometimes, several hours on cramped and crowded airliners. Or the privilege of sitting around airport lounges waiting for the opportunity of getting on a crowded airliner. A great many of these Americans spend several hours driving to and from the airport to take part in the joys of airline travel. So I imagine that the same Americans would pay good money to ride a High Speed Train that took them where they wanted to go in a reasonable time frame.
Now obviously this is just guess work on my part but please note I’m not providing any figure or projections because any figure or projection for something that doesn’t exist is fantasy. I’ll leave the projections and figures to the professional promoters and detractors who seem to have way too much time on their hands and love to try and fool people with questionable math.
We should build a High Speed Rail Network in America because it is a good idea whose time has come. Rather than waste time on questions we can’t answer, we should be trying to build a better future for all Americans.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment